Author Topic: When will Elon Musk travel in space?  (Read 9866 times)

Offline Ludus

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When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« on: 03/13/2014 11:33 pm »
The recent events in Ukraine and their impact on Space issues, as in "SpaceX and ULA go toe to toe on EELV" point out how important public relations and politics can be to Space. A few weeks ago Russian engines were a prudent money saving business decision, now, not so much.

In that sense, whether Elon Musk himself decides to go up in a Dragon spacecraft has a lot to do with the fortunes of SpaceX and the industry. The first US manned space flight in years will be surprisingly big news under any circumstances. If there is a new semi-Cold War and it's something of a race, even more so. If Tony Stark's real world equivalent is going into space, that takes it up a few notches more.

He seems pretty qualified. It wouldn't be like the CEO of Boeing taking a joyride. Likely nobody knows as much about Dragon as he does, and no one would benefit more from insights gained. Like traditional astronauts he trained and got a license to pilot a jet fighter (not that it matters much, but it fits the traditional CV).

It would be a show of confidence in his own work. There is a certain moral appropriateness...(not that anyone ever applied it before). It's the ultimate in eating your own dog food.

On the downside he has huge responsibilities and 5 boys.

On the plus side he pretty clearly would get a kick out of it.

It would definitely boost his twitter following :)

Offline Prober

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #1 on: 03/13/2014 11:39 pm »
The sooner the better  !

Might be the best thing he could do for SpaceX ;D
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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #2 on: 03/14/2014 12:57 am »
I am sure he himself said that he won't do so for the early crewed Dragon flights. Somebody please help with digging out the quotes.....
« Last Edit: 03/14/2014 01:07 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #3 on: 03/14/2014 01:04 am »

Quote from: Elon Musk
I guess I'd like to be able to go to Mars while I'm still able to manage the journey reasonably well. So I think I don't want to be like 75 and go to Mars. At least in the beginning, it could be mildly arduous, so I'd like to get there ideally in my 50s, that would be kind of cool. I aspire to make that happen, and I can see the potential for that happening and I'm not saying it will happen but I think it can happen. I'll try to make it happen.

http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/computer-history-museum-presents-an-evening-with-elon-musk-2013-01-24
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Offline RocketGoBoom

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #4 on: 03/14/2014 01:08 am »
I will start the betting pool. I think he will get into Earth orbit before the age of 55.
He is 42 years old now.

With his position, and the financial implications if he were to die in an accident, he will have to wait a while.
« Last Edit: 03/14/2014 01:09 am by RocketGoBoom »

Offline guckyfan

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #5 on: 03/14/2014 03:59 am »
I am with QuantumG. He has no big interest in going to LEO. He has bigger fish to fry, going to Mars.


Offline IRobot

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #6 on: 03/14/2014 07:37 am »
Musk cannot risk a travel to space until both Tesla and SpaceX are rock solid. Let's say he makes the announcement one year before. Investors would be furious, SpaceX future clients would think twice.

So he will go only both companies have solid finances, working at cruise speed. Also only after a few manned missions to Mars, he can't risk being the first. He is not Richard Branson, this is not a stunt. He does not have to convince people by going first.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #7 on: 03/14/2014 08:23 am »
FWIW, I can see him wanting to fly on the first Dragon mission to the ISS (the rendezvous & docking proving mission). If there is a cargo Dragon on-station at the time too, he can spin it as the company's CTO personally reviewing how the company's products are faring in berthed/docked ops. However, on a purely human level, I can imagine that he would like to personally take charge of that flag the crew of STS-135 left behind.

In any case, we know that he has enough money to cover a ticket, 'Spaceflight Participant' style.
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Offline Mader Levap

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #8 on: 03/14/2014 08:58 am »
He will travel to space, indeed. It is inevitable.
But I bet against him travelling to Mars.
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Offline Ludus

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #9 on: 03/14/2014 11:07 pm »
Musk cannot risk a travel to space until both Tesla and SpaceX are rock solid. Let's say he makes the announcement one year before. Investors would be furious, SpaceX future clients would think twice.

So he will go only both companies have solid finances, working at cruise speed. Also only after a few manned missions to Mars, he can't risk being the first. He is not Richard Branson, this is not a stunt. He does not have to convince people by going first.

This depends quite a bit on how you see the middle term, say next 15-20 years of what SpaceX intends. Although they are planning Raptor and MCT even now, I think they view Mars as a long term objective. I assume that long before there is any manned trip to Mars, manned operations in Earth-Moon proximity will have to a be couple orders of magnitude higher. Several hundred people in space at all times. Many hundreds of launches per year, more or less daily, often several per day. Many manned habitats.

Some place in that future, long before anybody is on Mars, going into space won't seem unusually risky behavior. That's the context of the question to me. I think the probability that Musk will wait until there is a Mars Colony to first go into space seems pretty negligible since I expect Mars settlement to be looked at seriously only after rapid reusability makes manned space operations at least 100x as common as they are now. As it is it's like Europeans discussing settling the new world with dugout canoes.
« Last Edit: 03/14/2014 11:20 pm by Ludus »

Offline Ludus

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #10 on: 03/14/2014 11:18 pm »
I am sure he himself said that he won't do so for the early crewed Dragon flights. Somebody please help with digging out the quotes.....

I've never seen a comment like that. He did give up flying the L39 after his kids were born over the risk. I tend not to view any comments about going to Mars in the same category. Also flying an old military jet for fun is risk without a serious payoff.

Offline Jdeshetler

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #11 on: 03/15/2014 12:48 am »
I am sure he himself said that he won't do so for the early crewed Dragon flights. Somebody please help with digging out the quotes.....

I've never seen a comment like that. He did give up flying the L39 after his kids were born over the risk. I tend not to view any comments about going to Mars in the same category. Also flying an old military jet for fun is risk without a serious payoff.

Elon sold his McLaren F1 in 2007 after he wrecked his car at Sand Hill Road few miles from here with his friend and co-worker Peter Thiel after flew up in air 3' above the road like a disc.

“Watch this,” Elon replied and floored the gas pedal.

http://blog.trejdify.com/2012/09/how-elon-musk-crashed-his-mclaren-f1-car.html

Offline simonbp

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #12 on: 03/15/2014 02:30 am »
Ah ha! The electric car story now makes sense! Teslas are so heavy with batteries that there's no way you could do that! ;)

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #13 on: 03/15/2014 08:56 am »
Don't think Elon would wait patiently until he become a pensioner. He would be planning for Mars in 10 years from the introduction of the Falcon Heavy. Of course it might take a lot longer.

At the very least. After his minions test pilots paved the way he would visited the ISS before it gets decommission.

If Elon does goes uphill. Would he be wearing a gold & scarlet spacesuit?  :D

Offline RocketGoBoom

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #14 on: 03/15/2014 09:13 pm »

At the very least. After his minions test pilots paved the way he would visited the ISS before it gets decommission.

No way. He will buy the ISS after they are done and convert it to tourism purposes. By 2024 he will likely be the richest guy on the planet.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #15 on: 03/16/2014 11:45 am »

At the very least. After his minions test pilots paved the way he would visited the ISS before it gets decommission.

No way. He will buy the ISS after they are done and convert it to tourism purposes. By 2024 he will likely be the richest guy on the planet.

 ::) I didn't say what will happen to the ISS after decommission. Just that Elon should make a visit before then.

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #16 on: 03/18/2014 04:05 pm »

At the very least. After his minions test pilots paved the way he would visited the ISS before it gets decommission.

No way. He will buy the ISS after they are done and convert it to tourism purposes. By 2024 he will likely be the richest guy on the planet.

Yes, but if he goes to Mars, nobody can tax him on what he makes...
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Offline Proponent

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #17 on: 03/18/2014 04:11 pm »
I suspect the US government would disagree, US citizens being subject to US taxes regardless of whether they reside within the country or not.  And unless he no longer has Earth-bound assets, the government will have the ability to collect even if it has no presence on Mars.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #18 on: 03/18/2014 05:13 pm »
I suspect the US government would disagree, US citizens being subject to US taxes regardless of whether they reside within the country or not.  And unless he no longer has Earth-bound assets, the government will have the ability to collect even if it has no presence on Mars.

Then Musk will just have to acquire Martian citizenship and renounces his US citizenship.

Or proclaims himself the Warlord of Barsoom after transferring his Earthly assets to his kids and ex-wives staying on Earth. Especially if Musk bring some orbital denial capability with him to Barsoom.  ;D

But to get back on topic. My guess is that once all his kids turn 18 he will go up in a Dragon or even a MCT.

Offline dcporter

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #19 on: 03/19/2014 01:26 am »
My guess is that once all his kids turn 18 he will go up in a Dragon or even a MCT.

Well SpaceX is 12 this year and Tesla is 11...

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: When will Elon Musk travel in space?
« Reply #20 on: 03/20/2014 05:02 am »
My guess is that once all his kids turn 18 he will go up in a Dragon or even a MCT.

Well SpaceX is 12 this year and Tesla is 11...

His five boys are a lot younger.

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