Author Topic: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?  (Read 10950 times)

Offline guckyfan

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What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« on: 11/14/2014 07:22 am »
Elon Musk paid a visit to Berlin to receive the "Goldenes Ehrenlenkrad 2914", a golden steering wheel from a german publication and gave an interview. A few infos in it. The article is in german.

http://www.autobild.de/artikel/interview-elon-musk-ueber-tesla-visionen-und-den-mars-5441637.html

One question was What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop? He answered probably Hyperloop. A connection Los Angeles to Las Vegas is considered.

About dying on Mars. Yes when that time comes. But first he will probably go and come back. Seems he has too many plans on earth.

He will stay as chairman of Tesla at least until their Model 3, the middle class car is on the market. After that he does not know.

He has bought the James Bond Lotus car that could dive. He is working on a close replica that can really drive and dive. Electric drive of course.

Offline Eerie

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #1 on: 11/14/2014 09:45 am »
Musk isn't doing anything for the hyperloop at the moment, as opposed to doing a lot for Mars. If I seriously wanted to build a vactrain I'd start with a research on cheaply sustained vacuum in large tubes. It's probably one hell of a difficult problem.

Offline Norm38

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #2 on: 11/14/2014 12:47 pm »
Depends on the definition.  I'd be surprised if there wasn't a working hyperloop demo, or a short demo run, like the Shanghi airport maglev.

But I firmly believe that people will be living on Mars before we're all traveling in tubes.

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Get the scientists working on tube technology.  Chop chop!
-Tenacious D
« Last Edit: 11/14/2014 12:48 pm by Norm38 »

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #3 on: 11/14/2014 01:09 pm »
I hope someone builds the Hyperloop.

     Don't know why but the idea of being shot around the country in giant pneumatic tubes at supersonic speeds has always had a weird appeal to me.

     I just hope I don't get routed to Albuqurcue when I'm trying to get to L.A.
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Offline Lourens

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #4 on: 11/14/2014 02:14 pm »
Not really anything new, but for future reference by those who like to argue about What Elon Said, here's an English translation of the parts pertaining to SpaceX. I translated sentence-by-sentence, to stay as close as possible to the original. Since English sentences tend to be longer than German ones, it reads a bit staccato, but at least it's accurate :).

Which startup was the riskiest?
That was SpaceX.

Did you count on being successful with SpaceX and Tesla?
No, quite the opposite. I expected to fail. I believe in the saying "If you don't fail, you're not innovative enough."

You almost ended up being right. At the end of 2008, everything you built with the money from your PayPal share threatened to fail.
Those were the most difficult months of my life. In my private life I was getting divorced, in business also everything went wrong. I was close to a nervous breakdown. I wanted to invest half of the 165 million PayPay-dollars into Tesla and SpaceX. I ended up putting everything in. After the failure of the third rocket the end was very close. I started the fourth rocket with money borrowed from friends. The very last chance. And it went well. The next day NASA called and guaranteed 1.5 billion in orders. Since then, 14 rockets have flown into space. Then, on the last possible day, investors got on board with Tesla. Without that, Tesla would have been gone.

Dropping off satellites or transporting supplies to ISS doesn't satisfy you however. You want to go to Mars. Why?
Because it's important for humanity. Just like a new energy supply on Earth by the way. I'm convinced that humanity can continue to exist on Mars. I would come along, as well.

And die there?
I would come back before that. But when the time comes, why not?

And the ashes would be spread in space?
A: (Laughs) When it's over, it's over. But that would be cool.

Offline RanulfC

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #5 on: 11/14/2014 05:45 pm »
Musk at one point said he'd do a "demo" hyperloop if he had too. Given how little support California is giving him I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll probably have too :)

IIRC the hyperloop "vacuum" isn't all that hard and we have the technolgy and know-how to keep pressure in and/or out so it wouldn't be all that hard to do a short demo version. HOWEVER, it's going to cost and I don't see him realistically putting out the money when he's got other plans.

Randy
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #6 on: 11/14/2014 06:00 pm »
Musk at one point said he'd do a "demo" hyperloop if he had too. Given how little support California is giving him I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll probably have too :)

IIRC the hyperloop "vacuum" isn't all that hard and we have the technolgy and know-how to keep pressure in and/or out so it wouldn't be all that hard to do a short demo version. HOWEVER, it's going to cost and I don't see him realistically putting out the money when he's got other plans.

Randy

He talked in the interview about a Hyperloop link to Las Vegas.

Quote
Ich glaube, der Hyperloop liegt vorn. Aber vielleicht mit einer anderen Strecke. Es gibt Interesse für die Strecke Los Angeles–Las Vegas.

I believe, Hyperloop is ahead (of Mars). But maybe with another link (than Los Angeles - San Francisco). There is interest in a link Los Angeles - Las Vegas.

So there must be someone, probably with money, behind it.

Offline RanulfC

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #7 on: 11/14/2014 06:20 pm »
Musk at one point said he'd do a "demo" hyperloop if he had too. Given how little support California is giving him I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll probably have too :)

IIRC the hyperloop "vacuum" isn't all that hard and we have the technolgy and know-how to keep pressure in and/or out so it wouldn't be all that hard to do a short demo version. HOWEVER, it's going to cost and I don't see him realistically putting out the money when he's got other plans.

He talked in the interview about a Hyperloop link to Las Vegas.

Quote
Ich glaube, der Hyperloop liegt vorn. Aber vielleicht mit einer anderen Strecke. Es gibt Interesse für die Strecke Los Angeles–Las Vegas.

I believe, Hyperloop is ahead (of Mars). But maybe with another link (than Los Angeles - San Francisco). There is interest in a link Los Angeles - Las Vegas.

So there must be someone, probably with money, behind it.

Eh, not really. There has been "talk" about an LA-LV "fast" train for a long while and so far no money ever comes forward for it. I suspect there is actually MORE interest in a fast train from Salt Lake City to LV (or Wendover, Nevada actually) than for doing so from LA. On long weekends there is actually slow-downs due to traffic on the roads from there to there where as you NEVER see that much traffic between LA and LV :)

Randy
From The Amazing Catstronaut on the Black Arrow LV:
British physics, old chap. It's undignified to belch flames and effluvia all over the pad, what. A true gentlemen's orbital conveyance lifts itself into the air unostentatiously, with the minimum of spectacle and a modicum of grace. Not like our American cousins' launch vehicles, eh?

Offline Nomadd

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #8 on: 11/15/2014 02:27 am »
 I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.
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Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #9 on: 11/15/2014 02:58 am »
I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

Offline TripD

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #10 on: 11/15/2014 06:06 am »
I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

Well to be fair, California keeps popping up as at least one destination of the tube.  Earthquakes do lend themselves to near instantaneous disasters and the estimated speeds of vehicles in the tube would make quick stops quite difficult.  On the other hand,  it is as likely that people not in the tube could be injured during an earthquake.
« Last Edit: 11/15/2014 06:08 am by TripD »

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #11 on: 11/15/2014 06:23 am »
I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

Well to be fair, California keeps popping up as at least one destination of the tube.  Earthquakes do lend themselves to near instantaneous disasters and the estimated speeds of vehicles in the tube would make quick stops quite difficult.  On the other hand,  it is as likely that people not in the tube could be injured during an earthquake.

Yeah, again, it's like a road bridge.  A strong earthquake could take out a section of hyperloop tube, but that same earthquake is just as likely to take out some auto bridges, with results that are just as bad for people who happen to be driving over them at the time.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #12 on: 11/15/2014 08:43 am »
I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

Putting people in aluminum tubes with wings and dangling them thousands of feet above the surface at hundreds of miles per hour also seems sort of dangerous. Putting office/residential space hundreds of feet up in air also sounds kind of dangerous. Giving barely tested/trained teens drugs, alcohol and control of a multi-ton vehicle with speeds upwards of 100 mph seems sort of dangerous.

Offline Eerie

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #13 on: 11/15/2014 10:12 am »
Putting people in aluminum tubes with wings and dangling them thousands of feet above the surface at hundreds of miles per hour also seems sort of dangerous. Putting office/residential space hundreds of feet up in air also sounds kind of dangerous. Giving barely tested/trained teens drugs, alcohol and control of a multi-ton vehicle with speeds upwards of 100 mph seems sort of dangerous.

The speed of a vactrain is much higher than of a plane. And a train is much heavier. The energy released during a catastrophe will be enormous.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #14 on: 11/15/2014 11:15 am »
Putting people in aluminum tubes with wings and dangling them thousands of feet above the surface at hundreds of miles per hour also seems sort of dangerous. Putting office/residential space hundreds of feet up in air also sounds kind of dangerous. Giving barely tested/trained teens drugs, alcohol and control of a multi-ton vehicle with speeds upwards of 100 mph seems sort of dangerous.

The speed of a vactrain is much higher than of a plane. And a train is much heavier. The energy released during a catastrophe will be enormous.

"vactrains" don't have one speed. They are simply more energy efficient bullet trains with a corresponding higher top speed. Whether that top speed is utilized regularly is another matter. Bullet trains typically don't go full tilt either.

Offline Eerie

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #15 on: 11/15/2014 12:14 pm »
"vactrains" don't have one speed. They are simply more energy efficient bullet trains with a corresponding higher top speed. Whether that top speed is utilized regularly is another matter. Bullet trains typically don't go full tilt either.

Actually, top speed of a real vactrain (with full vacuum) is the orbital speed at Earth surface. :-)

Offline Nomadd

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #16 on: 11/15/2014 12:23 pm »
 Maybe terrorists will completely ignore the opportunity to wreak tremendous havoc with a simple satchel charge at the right time. Airliners at cruise have lots of space to maneuver when something goes wrong. This thing will be inches away from hitting a wall at several times the speed of a high powered rifle bullet at the tiniest problem. It would require a degree of perfection, trust and reliability that's not likely in this world.
 It doesn't "sound kind of dangerous" It is ridiculously dangerous.
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #17 on: 11/15/2014 12:24 pm »
What will come first, Mars or Hyperloop?

I think giving those two choices I have to say, The Moon.

Obviously Hyperloop is the most practical from an ease to build being on the earth and all.  But it would need a believing benefactor with billions to risk first.

I think putting humans on the moon by some country is going to happen within the next 10-20 years.
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #18 on: 11/15/2014 01:37 pm »
So there is nobody, who believes that Elon Musk knows something we don't and has a reason to believe it will be Hyperloop soon? Because there is something concrete going on?

Offline llanitedave

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Re: What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?
« Reply #19 on: 11/15/2014 03:18 pm »
I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

Earthquakes.  Even if it doesn't come completely apart, it can rupture and lose the vacuum.  And the LA to Las Vegas route, at least, would have to cross the San Andreas fault, and a few others.
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