Author Topic: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept 28, 08  (Read 326803 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

While we're still waiting on a specific date for Flight III, I'll start this thread for the fourth...

Flight 4 of the F1 planned for September (Malaysian satellite) the vehicle will be finished and on its way to Kwaj in late July (Per Elon).
« Last Edit: 09/28/2008 06:32 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline William Graham

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #1 on: 06/18/2008 06:00 pm »
I've heard 31 August as a possible date, but that was before the latest delay to flight 3.

The main payload is Razaksat, for Malaysia's ATSB. There are also three CubeSat slots, which are allocated to the California Polytechnic University, who will be using them to fly payloads for other organisations. This does not mean there will be three cubesats, but there will be the size equivalent of three (a single 3U, or six 0.5U cubesats could be flown, for example).

Offline StuffOfInterest

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #2 on: 08/03/2008 12:53 pm »
Well, with the failure of flight 3 last night I'm pretty confident we won't see an attempt for flight 4 in the next month.  Still, I don't think the delay will be as long as that from flight 2 to flight 3.  Remember, a big reason for the delay in flight 3 was waiting for the Merlin 1C to finish testing.  Unless there is a decision to wait for the pump upgrade mentioned in the F9 testing update there shouldn't be a reason to wait past the failure analysis before moving on with the next flight.  Of course, that depends on the failure being traced to something easy to correct.

Offline Analyst

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #3 on: 08/03/2008 05:38 pm »
Judging from past experience with other companies and SpaceX, I don't think they will try again in this year. Delta II was back in service very fast in 1997 (January to May, 4 months), but the failure mode (SRM) was easily understood.

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Offline Cretan126

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #4 on: 08/03/2008 10:39 pm »
Judging from past experience with other companies and SpaceX, I don't think they will try again in this year. Delta II was back in service very fast in 1997 (January to May, 4 months), but the failure mode (SRM) was easily understood.

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I agree with Analyst. And if I'm the Malaysian customer, I don't want my spacecraft to be the next guinea pig payload.  And, for the record, I predict we won't see Falcon 9 fly in 2009.

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #5 on: 08/03/2008 10:49 pm »
Won't it depend entirely on the nature of the failure - which won't be specifically known for a while yet?

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Offline AresWatcher

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #6 on: 08/03/2008 11:54 pm »
Won't it depend entirely on the nature of the failure - which won't be specifically known for a while yet?



Exacly. Could be something as small as a software fault.
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Offline hop

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #7 on: 08/04/2008 09:56 pm »
Exacly. Could be something as small as a software fault.
If it's a small simple software fault (or obvious manufacturing flaw or some other "simple" problem), you still have to figure out how your process let it through in the first place, and quite possibly examine a bunch of other cases where the same hole in the process could have let similar flaws get through.

Offline guidanceisgo

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #8 on: 08/06/2008 04:35 am »
Won't it depend entirely on the nature of the failure - which won't be specifically known for a while yet?



Exacly. Could be something as small as a software fault.
I like that " as small as a software fault ".  The implications of a "small" software fault are widespread.  The idea of " lets just change this line of code and try again" is bound to get you to that 0/4 mark.  Why was the fault not caught in real time closed loop testing?  Are the flight models not accurate?  Is the hardware modeled incorrectly?  Is the whole software verification process flawed?  A software fault might be tougher than a hardware issue! 

Offline Analyst

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #9 on: 08/06/2008 06:47 am »
Won't it depend entirely on the nature of the failure - which won't be specifically known for a while yet?

History shows it takes many months to recover from a failure. Exeption: 1950ies and early 1960ies with money in unlimited supply and the military wanting its new ICBM toys.

Even if the separation issue is "simple", you still have the first stage roll control issue (which could be the/one cause for the staging problem) and the abort procedure refinements.

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Offline dirkthefirst

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #10 on: 08/06/2008 07:25 am »
While we're still waiting on a specific date for Flight III, I'll start this thread for the fourth...

Flight 4 of the F1 planned for September (Malaysian satellite) the vehicle will be finished and on its way to Kwaj in late July (Per Elon).

Not sure if I should say this here or in the new thread..

Is it really wise of them to begin shipping F1-4 before the F1-3 flight? As we've now found, F1-3 failed, and that could lead to changes to the vehicle for the next flight.
If so, aren't they going to have to ship the thing all the way back to the factory? Their launch site doesn't look like it's capable of supporting any major changes to the vehicle in-situ.

(edit) Hah, this is the new thread. Guess I need more coffee to wake me up.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2008 07:26 am by dirkthefirst »

Offline William Graham

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #11 on: 08/06/2008 08:03 am »

Is it really wise of them to begin shipping F1-4 before the F1-3 flight? As we've now found, F1-3 failed, and that could lead to changes to the vehicle for the next flight.
If so, aren't they going to have to ship the thing all the way back to the factory? Their launch site doesn't look like it's capable of supporting any major changes to the vehicle in-situ.

They didn't know it was going to fail, and were aiming for a quick turnaround.

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #12 on: 08/06/2008 12:18 pm »
While we're still waiting on a specific date for Flight III, I'll start this thread for the fourth...

Flight 4 of the F1 planned for September (Malaysian satellite) the vehicle will be finished and on its way to Kwaj in late July (Per Elon).

Not sure if I should say this here or in the new thread..

Is it really wise of them to begin shipping F1-4 before the F1-3 flight? As we've now found, F1-3 failed, and that could lead to changes to the vehicle for the next flight.
If so, aren't they going to have to ship the thing all the way back to the factory? Their launch site doesn't look like it's capable of supporting any major changes to the vehicle in-situ.

(edit) Hah, this is the new thread. Guess I need more coffee to wake me up.

Heh, so many threads! :)

Well, F1-4 is already there and Elon/SpaceX seem confident any related F1-3 fix is minor, so as of right now, it's not a problem.
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Offline Analyst

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #13 on: 08/06/2008 01:11 pm »
I doubt it, but only time will tell.

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Offline Skyrocket

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #14 on: 08/06/2008 02:21 pm »
Apparently Malaysia will delay the RazakSat payload by two years due to launcher problems. If these can not resolved, another launch provider might be selected.

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/state_news/news.php?id=350849&cat=ct

Offline aero313

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #15 on: 08/06/2008 02:46 pm »
Apparently Malaysia will delay the RazakSat payload by two years due to launcher problems. If these can not resolved, another launch provider might be selected.

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/state_news/news.php?id=350849&cat=ct

That's what I thought it said at first, but read it again.  If you wade through the less-than-perfect English, I think that's supposed to mean the satellite has been delayed for two years so far.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #16 on: 08/06/2008 02:49 pm »
Apparently Malaysia will delay the RazakSat payload by two years due to launcher problems. If these can not resolved, another launch provider might be selected.

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/state_news/news.php?id=350849&cat=ct

Are they talking about a launcher problem, or a ground station problem?  The contractor mentioned was, I believe, involved with the ground station work.

Clearly there are problems with the "launcher", but two years?

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 08/06/2008 02:51 pm by edkyle99 »

manlymissileman

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #17 on: 08/06/2008 02:54 pm »
Having done some business with Asia this phrasing could mean anything, including a very polite and round-about dismissal.  (noting also the date of the statement, does it correlate to anything that's just happened? A coincidence?  Why issue it now?  Surely if it was any problem with the sat it would be held back until it's relevant)  But I'm guessing like everybody else.  I'm sure we'll know what's going on soon.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2008 03:03 pm by manlymissileman »

Offline marsavian

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #18 on: 08/06/2008 03:21 pm »
Maybe it's a 2 year cooling off period so Falcon 1 can prove its reliability first. Easy come easy go.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2008 03:21 pm by marsavian »

Offline dirkthefirst

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Re: SpaceX Falcon I Launch IV - NET Sept, 08
« Reply #19 on: 08/06/2008 03:37 pm »
Heh, so many threads! :)

Or too few braincells on my part ;)

Quote
Well, F1-4 is already there and Elon/SpaceX seem confident any related F1-3 fix is minor, so as of right now, it's not a problem.
Quote
They didn't know it was going to fail, and were aiming for a quick turnaround.

It just strikes me as odd that they'd send it one or two days before the launch window for flight 3 opened. IMO it's better to delay a day or two to see the results of fl3 before shipping..it is only a few days and as far as I know their next launch window isn't tight.




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